Sunday 14 May 2023

A self inflicted crisis?

 Hi All,

To those of us with Parliametary Systems of government, the current 'debt ceiling crisis' in America seems strange to the point of being a self inflicted, shoot yourself in the foot event. 

In the 'Westminster' system a government depends upon  Parliamentary 'supply and confidence', supply in this meaning is the ability of the government to spend, tax and issue debt or a codified budget, if the government cannot then it collapses and further elections are called or another government that can pass a budget takes over. 

In the American  system of checks and balances the power of the purse is given to the Congress, not the Executive (President) and the 2 houses of Congress and the Executives could all be controlled by different fractions. Hence Congress passes expenditure and tax legislation, then the President can pass it into law or not. So far so good. In this instance, however, the crisis is not because no budget has been passed, the problem is that America also has a limit to the debt that can be issued.  The budget has been passed, but no-one bothered to register the fact that the debt limit was almost maxed out anyways, even as the Congress agreed to trillions in spending for Green politics under the 'Inflation reduction act' (as if inflation will be reduced in a time of existing high inflation via a trillion or two dollar simulus !) and stuff like providing student debt relief, which is going to help people who are already going to do well in life with a better education.  . 

It does seem illogical to a practical mind that Congress can pass expenditures knowing full well that it will not have enough money coming in from taxes, but not vote at the same time to increase the debt limit. Therefore one has to ask oneself, why didn't the Democrats -or at least Treasury Secretary- ask for or actually increase the limit at the same time they were spending vast sums of someone else's money and in control of all 3 levers of government. 

Either the Democrats forgot, are stupid or want to manufacture a political crisis for the upcoming Presidential elections next year and blame it on the Republicans, like Clinton did in the 1990s. I mean the Democrats  know full well that the GOP would, when facing a Democrat President and in control of at least the House,  never agree to a debt increase (when in Office under Trump it was of course voting for unfunded tax cuts, a massive increase in borrowing and spending, but that's a different story). 

Is it conspiracy theory territory to think that? Or will a deal be reached and all of this is just political theatre, in a way a Brit cannot understand American hyper partisan politics,  but no-one really wants to go nuclear with  no limit increase, 14th Amendment lawfare, gold selling or trillion dollar coins?


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