Sunday 28 January 2018

The problem isn't with Hammond or Boris

The recent brexit negotiations have been a shambles. Added to this has been cabinet ministers straying away from government policy and speaking their minds publicly.  They can of course do so because at the heart of the Brexit negotiations there is no government policy. It is being done on the hoof, which results in round one a clear victory for the EU.

To explain what I mean let's take a step back at look at the theory and practice of British government (as opposed to politics). In theory and practice the government is drawn from the majority party in the house of commons and lords. The apex of government is the Cabinet , a committee of the (in theory)  more powerful Privy Council. In practice it is the Cabinet, made up of the senior political Secretaries of state , that make the key decisions on the policy and direction of the British state. The Prime Minister is NOT a President and is officially Primus Inter Pares - first among equals- of the Cabinet. The Cabinet discusses policy in private and comes to a collegiate decision which binds all of them into publicly support for that or this policy . If a member of the Cabinet disagrees they can either suck it up or resign.

Are you with me so far?  

Good.

So the problem with our Brexit negotiations and strategy is that - as Chancellor  Hammond admitted- there's been no discussion on exactly what the Cabinet wants and no effort to thrash out a position . When the government claimed it didn't want to show its hand, lest the wicked foreigners get one up on us, it sounded sensible. The trouble was it was a vacuous as any other of  Prime Minister May's  statements and spin. Brexit means Brexit was a good holding statement , but no-one has the faintest idea of what this means.

 Ergo Foreign Secretary  Boris can call for a post brexit spending splash on the NHS and his opponent Chancellor Hammond can speak of being as close to the EU as possible , in an attempt to keep big businesses on side. But neither are speaking from an agreed Cabinet position because there isn't one. Instead Mrs May drifts from one crisis to the next and just gives out increasingly uncertainty and crass incompetence. Into this vacuum and without direction the civil service - not exactly known for vision and preferring the status quo - is taking over policy.  Hence a 2-3 year transition period , during which we'd have no say on new EU policy or regulations. So they can bind us to allow , say, Turkey into the EU or create a pan Euro army and we'd have no way of blocking it.

Do they , i.e. the conservative party, get rid of May?  Would it make a difference? It wouldn't at the moment , it would be the rearranging of the deck chairs of the titanic. At the least the  Cabinet, needs to do its job and  have a long discussion as to exactly what they want and the policy to peruse this aim. If that means hard or soft brexit or no brexit, at least we'd know where everyone stands.  But the country cannot afford this drift. It needs clarity and clear direction. Even if this upsets some and let's face it whoever is in charge of these negotiations would upset someone. In short choose your enemies. Choose your poison. Before the choice is given to you.



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