Monday, 9 July 2018

Two years for this?!

The context

The government has had two years to come up with a Brexit plan. TWO YEARS ! Yet they've just wasted this time on apparently doing nothing and sideling the very department which was tasked with Brexit implementation. Then we have the latest summit at chequers (the PM's country estate, akin to Camp David in American terms) .  It was off to a terrible start with the odious and insulting briefings against Brexit Cabinet members such as advising wherein the taxi firms were in the nearest village (1 mile away) and calling them 'naracasitists ', to 'be replaced with younger colleagues'  and who had to suck up whatever crap May gave them 'for the good of the country'. This was remiscient of May the arrogant, nasty , secluded and non collegial  pre  her humiliation at an election she decided to call and in which she utterly messed up with her cryogenically frozen performance . Us conservatives have had to watch this witch govern with incompetence for day one,  almost give the keys to the nation to a socialist who'd turn Britain into Venezuela, but even worse being warned or threatened by this possibility - a possibility only made possible by the very people saying it! At the same time her cronies were going to brief Labour MPs on the deal . Apparently Germany was briefed before the Cabinet. If so that's at the very least unconstitutional, at worse a form of treason (this is perhaps the most important decision to be made in a generation and consulting with a foreign power before one's own colleagues is ?). Several days later we have numerous resignations. Boris was the big headline, but I think David Davis was the one who said it right . He did not want to be 'an unwilling conscript' to a policy he couldn't agree with. Resignations on matters of principle and not scandal. That's a first for many a year.

The proposal

May's proposal is flawed in one simple way. It is an opening position that has to be agreed to by the EU and by the British Parliament. It will fail in Parliament because most Labour MPs would truly want to keep us within the EU. What is the point of them voting for a deal that keeps us in the EU in all but name, but non of the influences or levers of power with which to fashion agreements we want? Likewise Conservatives can't really back this plan because  it is Brexit in name only. But the big problem is that it is an opening position in a negotiation. In such negotiations one has to compromise. But this document is so compromised,  you can imagine how much more -as has been the case throughout the past 2 years -the EU will squeeze out of Britain. Honestly if the EU just asked for another trillion then we'd probably cave in and agree to it .


What happens now ?

Who knows is the answer. Will May get this past Parliament ? And will May survive?  I think May will survive in the short term, although because of her performance at the last election, the Conservatives would have to have entered into a party suicide pact for her to go onto 2020.  No-one wants to pull the trigger for her then to survive, which would make her impossible to get rid of. Furthermore she had better avoid trying to get her own way with opposition votes, she should look at what happened to the Conservatives with Robert Peel and the repeal of the corn laws. Of course all this could be moot. The EU could and probably will reject these proposals anyway.

Should she go?

Yes I hope she does. But see above for a caveat .




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