Hi All,
What a week it has been!
First we have the ongoing war in Gaza and today's subsequent rulings from the Kangaroo Court in the Hague, by a state which is not even capable of giving its own citizens basic stuff like water, against a state whose very purpose was to prevent another genocide of the Jewish people, now accused of the blood libel of, er, genocide.
This week also saw the close of the Davos get together of the great and good .Switzerland is a nice country and it was there that the head of the most powerful bank -JP Morgan, Chase & Co - Jamie Diamond shocked a few lefties with his suggestion that Trump had been right all along on a lot of things.
In America we have had the clearest indication yet that Trump is almost certainly going to be the nomination of the GOP for POTUS... although mabye he won't be on the ballot in certain blue states (confusingly in America blue is the left colour and red is the right colour. This is no different to how Americans drive on the wrong side of the road. Go figure ). Now many people in Europe don't get it, but they are starting to because America is going through the same thing Europe did and to a lesser extent still is, going through namely mass illegal immigration on the Mexican border. What is not really reported here is that the Blue states are getting a dose of their own medicine, with many of the illegals being bussed into those same 'sanctuary cities' that now claim they don't want them and can't cope. Who would have thought that millions of economic and poor migrants crossing a border - illegally- for a welfare cheque would cause any problems to the host country, eh? Maybe a wall wasn't such a bad idea?
The foreign policy thing we can also take from this is that there are real threats Trump would pull out of NATO, which means the Yanks might not be coming , to reverse the old song.
Which leads us to the next bit of news : is war (In Europe) in sight? I first assumed that this was because of a lack of news, but no it is serious. Estonia, Sweden and Germany had all been talking this up, either by leaked documents on assumptions of a war in 1-3 years and then it hit us on Wednesday. In Britain there is talk by the Chief of Staff to bring back conscription (the Draft to Americans) because of the outlook for a wider European war. American generals have been warning in public for the past couple of years Britain is no longer the military power she once was.
That is chilling stuff, given that Britain has only drafted civilians into her forces during 2 world wars, although even with the meat grinder of the trenches, it was Kitchener's volunteers who made up the bulk of troops before conscription was introduced, first for unmarried and then married men. But while the government was quick to backtrack, its seems that there is a greater acceptance that some form of remarmament is necessary as it was in the 1910s and later 1930s. The problem is that HM Treasury sees things differently and has been happy to enforce a 'gutting' of the Defence Forces over the past 30 years. This has to stop. We cannot just rely on the nuclear deterence. Who believes that the UK would nuke Russia if the Baltics were invaded? No-one. Because anyone sane enough would point out Russia would destroy the UK with several missiles.
What is needed is a build up of the military - not cutting it even further- to do our part in the defence of Europe, which is ultimately a defence of our Kingdom as well, but it is better to 'Duke it out' in the Baltics than in Newcastle, Glasgow or Belfast. There are a few signs of this, in the new Type 83 Destroyer (in reality a Cruiser), because things like the navy have a lot of trendy weapons that have been defensive and not offensive. We need to see the armed forces in 'beast mode' and we need to see more than a handful of these new Cruisers being built, which will require investment in new shipyards or a revivial of shipbuilding in the tradtional areas such as Newcastle, Belfast, Glasgow, Bristol etc.
Why then is there great chatter about war being in sight? My feeling is that it is not just unease about whether America will stay with us, but also because it is widely deemed that Ukraine's offensives have failed and that the country is on the brink, along with this allies are doubting whether sending over aid is worthwhile with the US Congress concluding 'no' and if Trump is elected then that is it and Ukraine will be forced to split herself into 2 . The timeframe in the German documents allude to this fact and intelligence analysts have been watching the war intently. The amount of weaponary that is being used. The 'force multipliers' that our arms manufacturers have been producing were costly and fewer than what we had before, but were supposed to be x times as powerful. This may or may not be the case, but it is illuminating that these force multipliers might not be all they are cracked up to be. Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallance said the 'cubbard was bare' and then America was forced to send its old cluster munitions with a gaffe by Biden that America was running out of its high end missiles- with lead times (the time it takes to produce) of years. So if this year is the year Ukraine has to capitulate and the generals probably know this, then the next target are the Scandinavian -Baltic states, all NATO members or allies. Hence the urgent talk of military buildups or worry over war.
But we shall see...
In the meantime Shabbat Shalom!
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