Why would you want to?

Hi all,

Warming to my Scottish theme I thought it would be interesting to see what's going on in Europe. The SNP of course first had an idea that a Scottish republic would be a Midas state with the north sea oil and join a Scandinavian "arc of prosperity", until Iceland went bust and the Scottish banks went the same way (saved by the British taxpayers) , and oil prices went off a cliff , to today where prices are negative !

So the only thing the SNP can suggest is to for them to rejoin the EU and all will be well according to them. I don't doubt that this is politically doable as the SNP government were extremely helpful to Spain during the Catalan protest and arrests.

But you have to ask yourself what state would want to leave a successful 300  year plus union to join one which probably won't even last another deacade?  In any case the EU is no longer the confederation  it was in the 1990s wherein it could shower billions on the poorer member states, which Scotland would be given the enormous debt pile it would either take over or which would quickly build up without Westminster subsidy . Firstly the EU doesn't have the money and secondly there's a huge row going on about setting a new budget , between north Europe, south Europe and eastern Europe. There's a massive hole in the EU finances thanks to brexit.

The bad boys of the situation are no longer the British, but all those countries who supported Britain in private , but never publicly. Especially the Dutch who don't want to pay any more. So much so their prime minister bought a book with him to read , rather than seriously negotiate.

Then there's the tiny matter of Italy, Spain and Greece. I have something of  a soft spot for Greece as they and their Archbishop, who  defended Jews during their occupation by Nazis during the war. 

But I digress.

All three of these countries have suffered a decade of austerity and counter productive bailouts. Their national debts are above 100% of GDP, despite the cuts . They are stereotyped as lazy meds  by the Calvinist Germans and Dutch. They have also born the brunt of the refugees / economic migrant crisis with no help from EU states. Then covid 19 happened. They have suffered terribly in human lives . They were also abandoned in other ways . During the first phase of this pandemic the rest of the EU closed their borders and stopped supplies of vital medical equipment. And this is a union which enforces freedom of movement ,  goods and services within its borders and with brexit caused the problems of the Irish border. But in a crisis it was every man for himself.

The economic toll upon these countries is going to be great. And Italy and Spain have been vocal about a covid marshall plan. The Dutch and Germans and Fins want nothing of the sort. The result was a € 500 billion fund, but not as a grant but as a loan and no one has actually  pledged the money yet. Quite how a country with an already large debt pile will repay this is beyond anyone's guess. 

You see in Britain we still control our money as we didn't join the Euro and we can borrow from the central bank if we need and have in fact done so via the ways and means facility in effect the Treasury's overdraft at the bank. Currently £276 billion overdrawn, until the government raise money via gilts (bonds)  and the bank of England buying these bonds- £645  billion is the aggregate -  on the open market via quantitative easing (more money printing)   

This may sound alarming , but the bank of England was actually set up to provide money to fight a war against the French, so it's nothing new. Unfortunately Italy, Spain and Greece cannot as they are in the Eurozone and their central bank is dominated by German fears of Weimar hyper inflation.

It is true that the European Central Bank (ECB)  is also doing quantitative easing. It is forbidden to fund member states directly , but can buy bonds on the open market.  They are doing just enough for Italy and Spain to borrow. Yet even this has been challenged- successfully-  in the German high court.  The German bundesbank is the equivalent of the New York fed as is the largest of the ECB banks. Therefore it buys bonds on an massive scale under the ECB umbrella. If it were to stop then Italy and Spain would not be able to borrow. This was seen in the early phase of the crisis when legarde the head of the ECB said it wasn't the banks job to close yields. This prompted a debt strike on Spain and Italy, until she was forced to alter course.  In any case the German court ruling means a clash with the EU commission who asserts that EU law is above national law as is the ECB.  But whatever the outcome,  the club med countries are being dangled on a string : getting enough cash to barely survive , but n it enough to actually get out of the situation. Sooner or later it will be a choice of further austerity or a return to their previous national currencies. When that happens the EU is as good as gone.

I cannot see why for the life of me the SNP would want Scotland to be part of this mess. I for one think the UK 's decision to leave will one day be seen in the same way another Scotsman took the decision-against the wishes of the elites- not to join the Euro.