What are yields? OATS, Bunds, Gilts, Treasuries Anyone?

 Hi All, 

Some people have asked me to explain this one and I agree because it is jargon that can confuse people and the economic journalists to my mind fail to explain it. 

So....

The Old Lady drops out her loose change

     Hi All, 

By way of update on my post yesterday: so The Bank of England has intervened quite dramtically by 'suspending' its decision to sell of its pile of British government bonds (Gilts) and is in fact going into the market and buying up £65 billion of new government debt. The result was an immediate relexation of yields and the pound actaully rose to 1.09 to the dollar. As I noted yesterday, part of the issue is the government being able to sell the vast quantities of debt it needs to get by, without the short position for the entire UK's energy bill and unfunded tax cuts being factorted in. I would also say that the market- being global- is extremely crowded. It isn't just the UK, but the Fed (US) and the ECB (Europe) who are looking to also unwind the massive amounts of debt they bought using printed money for a decade. The chickens of this  untested policy, whose main effects have been to give the wealthy even more (hedge funds in particular), are now coming home to roost. 

And this time the auesterity that will come (at best in 1/2 years or just after the next election, maybe sooner thanks to this shower we've got at the moment) could be Greek style...

Welcome to HM Treasury's Hedge Fund UK Plc

Hi All,

The hysterical reaction to the ‘mini budget’ from centralists across the globe is quite astounding, not least because the opposition Labour party and the left generally are milking this for all it is worth, except that Labour have actually stated they are only going to reverse the cut to the high rate of taxation (for those earning £250,000) and the cap on banker’s bonuses. Both of these items are actually smaller than the cut in Corporate tax and the National Insurance cut or the decision in invest in future infrastructure projects. A final point to note is that while our debt to GDP ratio is now 100%, this is smaller than France, Japan, USA or Italy, with Germany coming in at under 100%  of the big economies.

Rosh Hashanah

 Hi all, 

shanah tovah umtukah !

The Road to 1900

 Hi All,

This time set in an alternative 19th Century, where the Great World War happened in 1900 and wasn't us against Germany. 

Timeline to The Road to 1900

1798- Napoleon I invades Egypt and the Middle East. One of the many pieces of plunder he takes with him is a device later dubbed ‘Le Porte des Cieux’ [The Door to the Stars].

1857- At the end of the Crimean War, Britain purchases Alaska from Russia for £ 40 million.

1857-1890s – Britain’s era of  “splendid isolation” from European affairs.

1850s – Turmoil and conflict between the US government and the Mormons, who establish their Republic of Desert, centred around Salt Lake City. Because of the conflict in Kansas and the coming civil war, Mormon independence is De Facto, if not De Jure.

1860-1865 – American Civil War. Union victory.

1865-1900: Beginning of mass expansion, wagon trains and the like ‘out west’. Ongoing strife between American Settlers, Native American tribes and the Mormon Republic .

1869- The device is rediscovered by archaeologist William Waddington in the many vaults of the Louvre. Contacting his old Master from Cambridge, Professor Victor Von Frankenstein, the pair somehow managed to get the device working in 1870. Two years later the Prussians had overrun Paris, the device was shipped away to London just in time.

1870s-Following much wrangling the Porte was returned to French authority (albeit working out of Cambridge for a couple of years)  which was just as well because the newly formed German Reich had imposed a massive set of reparations on defeated France, hoping this would cripple their old foe for years to come, but because France had access to the Porte, she had stumbled upon a place of pure gold: paying off a trillion Gold Francs became short change for the French, much to the alarm and surprise of Chancellor Bismarck, who was forced to pull German troops out of France as agreed under Treaty. The French continued to use the Porte, having shipped it back to France, establishing a base under the Banque De France and the Catacombs of Paris, this time Waddington was aided by the infamous Le Fantôme.

Meanwhile back in Britain, these activities had come to the attention of the British government. Frankenstein advised Prime Minister Disraeli that he believed he could build a similar machine and that he had in fact noted in his research parts scattered around the globe that could, along with his own designs,  be made into another Porte. Tasked by Britain’s Prime Minister and overseen by her chief spymaster ‘W’, during  the next couple of years Frankenstein, along with his faithful servant (his ‘monster’) John, his favourite pupils Dr Griffin &  Dr Jekyll and the legendary Alan Quartermain had many adventures across the globe, until they’d got what they needed.

During the course of these adventures the group accidentally revived a colony of S’sszorg, who were the original inhabitants of Earth, during the period of the dinosaurs, being forced into hibernation chambers across the globe some 66 million years ago.

1880s – The British begin their own Porte programme and under the instructions of Liberal Prime Minister Gladstone, the British mission is to ‘explore, trade, but not conquest’ and that Britain must where possible ‘cooperate with the French’. Alan Quartermain leads the primary team in exploring the galaxy, Prof. Frankenstein is the scientific adviser and ‘W’ remains in overall charge of the operation and regularly consults with Waddington, who has now become France’s Ambassador to Britain.

1884- Back on Earth, Britain has occupied Egypt, much to French disgust and the strike back comes in the form of the Jomad incident in which France causes a near war between Britain and the people of Jomad.

1885- Gladstone and his Cabinet, as a result of the Jomad incident, decide that the French need to be countered in space and decide to reveal the existence of the Porte Programmes to the public. France threatens war, both US President Cleveland and German Chancellor Bismarck suggest a Great Power conference either in Washington or Berlin. France and Britain both reject the offer, but internal issues (Home Rule and the Boulanger affair) mean that war is not formally declared, instead it is fought by proxy on various worlds.

Meanwhile the S’ssz’zorg are ready to make their move, claiming Earth is their own, they have revived what is left of their civilisation in 3 city star ships, currently somewhere in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. They make contact and revive their old allies from Mars asking them for assistance.

1886- After Gladstone’s defeat over Irish Home Rule, The Conservatives and Liberal Unionists win the July General election. The Marquess of Salisbury becomes First Lord of the Treasury (Prime Minister) and Foreign Secretary. In France the Boulanger coup has failed, providing an opening for a peace conference at Berlin.

1887/1888- Berlin Conference and Conventions :  establishes an independent S’ssz’zorg state, based around their 3 oceanic cities. In addition the S’ssz’zorg gain the Planet of Venus, a quarter of the Moon and 10 Asteroids from the main belt. In return for 1 million tons of gold to each of the governments conceding territory- plus an agreement they’d get the same amount of land back in a future colonisation agreement-  they gained  from Spain,  Viceroyalty of the Río de la Plata, ,  from Germany, German East Africa, German South West Africa, Cameroon, from the King of Belgium The Congo ‘Free State’,  from the British, The Kingdom of Hawaii,  from the Ottomans Crete, Tripolitania and Cyrenaica.  Britain agrees to sell to any other power a Porte device and basic rocket ships .  The French and British are allowed to establish protectorates or colonies on the worlds they’ve visited, former S’ssz’zorg and Martian ‘spheres of influences and territories are recognised,  but the remainder of space is open to the rest of the powers. It is agreed that the powers will meet ‘from time to time’  to discuss outer space matters.

1887 to 1900 - The ‘Scramble for Africa’ is overtaken by the ‘scramble for the Moon’, the ‘scramble for the Solar System’ and finally ‘the scramble for the Galaxy’ in the era of ‘high imperialism’.  Cecil Rhodes – who would by 1897 have a planetary solar system as well as 2 African colonies named after himself  - sums up the era by saying ‘I would annex the planets if I could and I can: there are so far, yet so near and we will have them all coloured red on the map, for Britannia’s honour!’

1888- The S’ssz’zorg  cure German Emperor Frederick III of his throat cancer .The new  liberally minded Emperor alongside his consort Empress Victoria , begins an glacial process of liberal & modernising reforms to the German Reich, but he does tear up Bismarck’s diplomatic and often contradictory treaties, leaving Russia to form an alliance with France as early as 1889. However, there are less tensions with Great Britain as there is not the bombast of his son (who decides to seek glory in the  Prussian Army) ‘Weltpolitik’ or a massive building of a German Navy, despite the growth of a Germanic ‘Space Empire’, Britain herself sees her main rivals as being Russia and France. In effect an informal balance of power exists between Germany, Austria and Britain verses France & Russia.

1890s- The 1890s are a decade in which the Great Powers were constantly faced with international crisis and small wars that threatened to become an all out world war. Historians later see some pattern in which one side or other is forced to back down, until neither side, when the final crisis came wanted to or was prepared for another humiliation.  It also witnesses the end of Britain’s ‘splendid isolation’.

1890- Franco-Russian Alliance formed

1892- Russian and French naval laws, see a dramatic increase in Battleship building, both for Oceanic and Space varieties. The Royal Navy’s “two power standard” is under threat.

1892- Moroccan Crisis, confirms French interests in Morocco as a protectorate. Humiliation for Britain.

1894- Britain’s Royal Navy launches HMS Dreadnaught, an advanced battleship on a par with ‘our’ realities 1990 version the USN Iowa Class: built within 1 year at a tremendous cost of £5.5 million.

1895- Britain’s Royal Navy launches HMS Illustrious, the most advanced Space battleship of humanity at a cost of £60 million.

1895- 1900- Naval and Space arms race between Britain and France/Russia.

1893/94- ‘Boxer’ Rebellion in China. Leads to the De Facto Partition of China by the Great Powers. Seen as a defeat for Britain, who used to de facto control most of China’s trade and for the US, who wanted an ‘open door’ policy.

1895-  Anglo-Japanese Alliance

1895-1897- First and Second Balkan War, leads to end of Ottoman Empire in Europe, except for Constantinople. While the Balkan territories are nominally independent Italy, Austria and Russia split the area into spheres of influence.  Britain tries a rear-guard action to stop the whole of the Empire collapsing, even in the face of the Armenian massacres.

1895 to Present - US government financial crisis, stemming from their bi-metal currency, which means that the Dollar is convertible to both silver and gold, however the fact is  more silver is being mined than gold. Thus speculators can make money by this converting cheap abundant silver into gold.  This is allowed to happen because Southern and Western States want a cheaper currency- incidentally also where the silver is mined, as opposed to a ‘hard’ currency based on Gold (favoured by Wall Street and Northern States).  Secondary causes of the crisis are to be found in the fact the US has also been forced to run a budget deficit, because of the cost of constant warfare between the Mormon Republics & the remaining Native Americans, who have managed to equip themselves with modern day firearms ( equivalent to Britain’s problems with the Boers in South Africa).  In the 1896 election Republican candidate John Sherman is elected, defeating silver standard advocate William Jennings Bryan. To avoid an immediate  catastrophic bankruptcy , the US government and Wall Street is bailed out:  JP Morgan puts up a third of his net worth, corralling the strongest banks to put up money as well, before finally persuading  The Banque De France and the Bank of England to ‘backstop’ the US Treasury. There are also concerns in American circles that the S’ssz’zorg are clandestinely arming the Mormons and Native Americans.

1898- The year of crisis and the beginning of ‘The Great World War’ .

 

God Save the King!

 Hi All, 

There's a lot of bad stuff going on right now, but at least we Brits still know how to do state occassions with solemnity, dignity and finess. And singing God Save the King is taking some getting used to...

Le Reine est mort, vive le Roi!

 Hi All,

Our beloved and wonderful head of state  Queen Elizabeth II has passed away. I have no doubt she is with Prince Philip in a better place.  She passes away at a time of great crisis for the UK, but God willing we shall overcome .

God save the Queen!

God save the King!